Will Faster Shipping Extend Holiday 2011?

Cross-border holiday sales have flowed in remarkably similar patterns during the past three years. If consumers follow the same cycles in 2011, daily sales peaks will be highly predictable – with one key exception: Gift buyers around the world may have an extra week to shop this year.

Since 2008 international shoppers have behaved more or less like their American counterparts, flocking to American retailers’ sites on the day after Thanksgiving, for example. Thanks mainly to faster shipping options global consumers may look even more American this year, spending heavily just ahead of merchants’ Christmas order deadlines. Having more time to order gifts doesn’t necessarily mean cross-border shoppers will start later, though. They’ve never started especially early, probably because they’re influenced by the same retail promotional cycles that drive American shoppers’ purchase patterns.

2011: Day-by-Day (see chart below)

Based on previous cross-border shopping seasons, the first observable holiday sales lift will appear on Tuesday, November 22nd, but this should be a relatively minor departure from normal levels. After a quiet Wednesday and Thanksgiving Thursday, Black Friday will produce the year’s biggest sales surge. Worldwide sales on November 25th may triple their rest-of-year daily averages.

Although weekend activity will remain elevated compared to the rest of the year, cross-border holiday sales have historically dipped sharply at the ends of weeks, and Thanksgiving weekend hasn’t been an exception. Cyber Monday sales, though, have approached Black Friday’s levels in past years. Cross-border sales on November 28th may reach 80% of Black Friday’s volume, kicking off the biggest week of 2011. During this week global sales have sometimes nudged upward on Wednesday or Thursday; if the calendar’s shift into December inspires gift shoppers, December 1st may buck the typical trend of late week fades.

From 2008-2010 the first Monday in December marked the final surge of the cross-border holiday season, with sales falling steadily through the rest of the month. This year Monday, December 5th should be another strong day, with worldwide sales reaching the previous week’s average. But this is where 2011 could be different from past years: For the first time cross-border merchants may have a Green Monday.



Green Monday

EBay, PayPal, and Shopping.com have used this term for the second Monday in December—often their biggest sales day of the year—since 2007; but this has been too late for most cross-border shoppers to buy for Christmas. Not this year, though. A number of prominent retail brands have recently introduced express shipping options, especially to Canada and other large markets. For international gift-givers, these options as well as seasonal shipping promotions may convince them to order from American ecommerce merchants. In effect this would add another week to the cross-border holiday shopping season.

The Catch: Awareness

Express shipping capabilities are unlikely to boost holiday sales without extensive promotion, though. The gift-buying window for many cross-border consumers has sometimes closed before December, so even loyal customers and brand advocates have been trained to shop elsewhere for presents. International merchants will need to actively communicate their new deadlines to extend their holiday seasons and become December shopping destinations.